A new Washington State University-led study says the U.S. could produce enough sustainable aviation fuel to meet about two-thirds of the federal government’s 2030 goal, but only if major challenges are addressed.
Researchers found the industry is growing quickly, but production is still unlikely to hit the target of three billion gallons annually by the end of the decade. The study projects the most optimistic scenario would reach about 2.1 billion gallons a year.
Announcements Are Not The Same Thing As Fuel
“We wanted to take a very pragmatic look at where we really are,” said Kristin Brandt, an adjoint faculty member in the Composite and Materials and Engineering Center in WSU’s Voiland College of Engineering and Architecture and lead author on the study. “There are people saying this industry is going to explode overnight and others saying nothing will happen at all. The reality is somewhere in between.”
Brandt noted many proposed fuel projects face delays or never get built at all.
“Announcements are not the same thing as fuel,” Brandt said. “People announce giant facilities with aggressive timelines all the time, but historically many projects get delayed, scaled back or never move forward.”
The study also found that hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, known as HEFA, will likely dominate U.S. SAF production through 2030. These fuels are largely made from fats, oils and greases such as used cooking oil and animal fats.
“There’s actually a global shortage of used cooking oil,” Brandt said. “It sounds ridiculous, but it’s true.”
The paper reflects a wider range of SAF research underway across WSU.
WSU noted sustainable aviation fuel can cut greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional jet fuel and can already be used in existing aircraft.
Photo: Glenn Vaagen
We Need To Be Honest About The Barriers
“When you think about aviation globally, these airplanes fly everywhere,” Brandt said. “Even if policies differ between countries, airlines operating internationally are still going to have to meet global standards. This is something the industry is going to have to work through together.”
For the researchers, the goal was not to discourage the industry but to provide a clearer picture of the challenges ahead as aviation works toward a lower-carbon future.
“If we want to hit these goals,” Brandt said, “we need to be honest about the barriers and realistic about what it will take to overcome them.”
Click Here to read that entire WSU-led study.
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