Prediction markets are not new, they date back hundreds of years, but now digital tech has elevated them to new heights.

  What Are Prediction Markets, Why is WA State (and others)Trying to Ban Their Use?

A prediction market are what’s called speculative marketplaces, where users buy or sell event ‘contracts,’ based on the outcome of a wide variety of events. These can range from political election results, natural disasters, and now even more–sports results.

The “odds” are determined by how many participants believe (for example) one NFL team will beat another, or who will win the NCAA Football title.

They differ from traditional betting, instead of going against the “house” odds, players bet against each other. They date back to the 19th century, the first US one was the 1988 Iowa Political Stock Market.  It’s grown steadily, and now Kalshi and Polymarket have made them available nationwide.

   Many States Ban Gambling in Various Forms

After the Federal Government passed legislation in 1988 allowing native tribes to operate casinos on sovereign (Federal) land, they began to grow. The first in WA state was 1992, the Tulalip and Lummi Nations opened casinos. WA State doesn’t get any revenue from the operations. However, prior laws banned gambling in our state.

WA, New York, and some other states are suing to ban prediction sites like Kalshi and Polymarket from operating, claiming they violate state gambling laws, and siphon money away from legal casinos. They also claim the prediction apps don’t thoroughly screen participa\nts’ ages.

  How Can WA State ‘Ban’ Prediction App use?

You might think, how can the state keep me from using Kalshi or Polymarket?  Their lawsuits demand these prediction apps place firewalls and other digital blocks, so users in WA cannot access them.   The walls detect the location of the user’s URL address, if it’s based in WA, they are blocked.

So far, 44 states are said to have opposed prediction market Apps, while 20, including WA, have actively filed lawsuits.